Current Epidemiological Data Can Help Predict Future Incidence of CCA

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), a rare and aggressive form of cancer, has seen a steady increase in incidence in the United States, with a predominant increase in intrahepatic CCA (iCCA), from 2001 to 2017 based on a recent epidemiological study. Dr Sri Harsha Tella presented results from a retrospective study that aimed to evaluate the future incidence of CCA with subgroup stratification based on CCA subtype, age, sex, and race in the hope that epidemiological data may aid in prevention planning and treatment strategies.

Histologically confirmed patient cases of CCA from 2000 to 2017 were obtained from 18 of the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. Age-period-cohort models were applied to estimate future CCA incidence rates (per 100,000). Incidence forecast multiplied by corresponding US census population projections was used to estimate disease burden. A total of 12,737 patients with iCCA and 8395 with extrahepatic CCA (eCCA) were included in the final analysis. The overall observed age-adjusted incidence of iCCA from 2000 to 2017 was 1.07 and is predicted to rise by 99% to 2.13 by 2029, with predominant increases in patients aged 70 to 79 years and in White men and women. The incidence of eCCA is also expected to rise 36.5% compared with 2001 to 2017, from 0.74 to 1.01, by 2029, predominantly in Black and Hispanic patients. Notably, a stable and decreasing incidence rate was seen in White and Asian women.

Overall, it is expected that the incidence of iCCA and eCCA will rise over the coming years. These studies suggest the need for urgent preventive measures; however, further studies are needed to determine contributing factors to the increase in CCA incidence.

Source: Tella SH, Hodge DO, Wieczorek MA, et al. A glimpse into the future of cholangiocarcinoma: predicting the future incidence based on the current epidemiological data. Poster presented at: ASCO Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium, January 19-21, 2023; San Francisco, CA. Abstract 616.